The cycle turns once more
SOME may or may not have noticed that a cavalier air permeates every announcement by UMNO leaders of their party’s intention to go it alone in the coming state and federal elections.
Without doubt, it is meant to be heroic, if not stoic.
It can be simply deduced that the earnestness stemmed from the realisation that the party’s current post-electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan (PH) is still rejected not only by the Malay majority, but even by its own supporters.
This is despite having been in the alliance for more than three years and accompanied by efforts to convince their supporters that the PH, Prime Minister (PM) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and the DAP had been misrepresented and are not what they had been portrayed to be.
Obviously, these efforts had failed and to ensure survival and hoping for a better showing after the dismal performance in the last election, UMNO leaders seemed to accept that these could only be achieved if they could convince UMNO supporters and the Malay electorate that they are not in any way allied to the PH, Anwar and the DAP.
It is pretty straightforward at this point. Sever ties with PH and the rest, convince the voters and enter the polls without the baggage that proved to be more than capable of dragging UMNO down.
Inevitably, though not in so many words, by declaring to enter the polls without them, UMNO had agreed with what the Opposition parties had said about the PH, Anwar and the DAP — that they are no good for the Malays and the nation.
Actually, UMNO had been saying this all along, though it went a tad silent during the union, except on some irregular intervals when a party renegade decides to raise an issue with the allies.
Even when the renegade speaks up against the PH and the rest, there are always doubts about his candour and that it was part of a political strategy to keep reminding the electorate that they are still Malay leaders and for the Malay interest.
With the Johor state assembly dissolved and the polls to be held soon, UMNO leaders declared that UMNO/Barisan Nasional (BN) will be going it alone and contesting in all 56 seats.
Somewhat scripted to some, PH leaders expressed anger and disappointment, while the lower-tiered leaders and supporters, the ones without much sway, reminded UMNO that they are enjoying government positions courtesy of PH and should resign if they had any morals.
It stopped there and was never raised by PH leaders with sway and neither did any of the UMNO leaders choose to address the insult and prove their integrity.
The PH leaders were equally cavalier. Declaring that they too would contest in all the seats contested by UMNO/BN.
While the degree of earnestness on the part of the PH, in declaring it had untied itself from UMNO in Johor, is less compared with the latter’s, the trajectory is similar when it comes to what it represents to its supporters.
Simply put, if UMNO is keen to disassociate itself with the PH to regain and retain support from the Malays, PH’s distancing itself reflected the allergy felt by their supporters towards UMNO.
In summation, the whole drama has come full circle — what it was in the run-up to the 15th general election (GE15) in late 2022.
Some may choose not to be reminded but UMNO’s campaign in that poll centred heavily on “No Anwar, No DAP” while PH’s was “No UMNO, No Zahid” (Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi — UMNO president who was facing 47 corruption-related cases).
On UMNO’s part, the aversion towards Anwar and the DAP was given divine decree when Ahmad Zahid reportedly uttered the Islamic oath of not working with Anwar and the DAP and if he/UMNO did, they would be damned.
As such, despite both sides reneging on their campaign promises of not aligning with each other, power is a great recipe for marriages of convenience and the coming together of strange bedfellows.
Nevertheless, the marriage needs to end when it becomes inconvenient, hence the display of separation and severance in the upcoming Johor polls.
The Negri Sembilan polls are now also next in line and a similar display of severance between UMNO/BN and PH can be expected to be played out to the hilt.
Malacca assembly’s expiry is also ending soon and it is expected to declare that it will hold its polls as soon as possible or simultaneously and again, the going-alone play will be presented and amplified.
Unfortunately, despite all the bravado of going solo at the state polls, it is still doubtful that it would be convincing and neither would it stand under scrutiny when the 16th Federal polls come into play.
Indeed, Ahmad Zahid had declared that UMNO/BN would go it alone in the Federal elections.
Except for the credulous, not many will buy that narrative, especially if details of “going alone” are dissected.
Firstly, UMNO/BN going alone is not as it was in the previous polls when it contested in seats which, if it won, would allow it to form the Government on its own or, in the worst case, with the support of smaller parties to help make up the numbers.
It meant that UMNO/BN is the leading party or coalition.
This time around, despite going in alone, it is not expected to contest in as many seats. In fact, speculations are in abundance that it will contest only a quarter of the available parliamentary seats.
And the seats it contests will be against its traditional foes — PAS and Bersatu — which seats are traditionally UMNO’s.
With a smaller number of seats and its opponents are going to be the current opposition, UMNO/BN is not entering the Federal polls to form the Government but rather to help form it.
Given that the seats it is contesting are against the Malay opposition parties, if it won most of the seats, it would deprive the Malay opposition of their seats and any bargaining power whatsoever.
Who would UMNO/BN then offer to align itself with to form the Government? Obviously, with those who have the numbers from the other side who did not contest with UMNO for the Malay votes and seats.
By then, voters would realise that the cavalier bravado and feigned earnestness are a crafted illusion.
Too late, the circle closes on cue.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of TMR editorial board. - 5 June 2026